Welcome to the world of Russian/Ukrainian politics and military endeavours from my point of view. This war which has recently kicked off has been brewing for quite a while. Obviously hindsight is 20/20 vision. For those with the eyes to see this war was totally predictable and preventable,IN HINDSIGHT! But there were “thinktanks” out there who were aware of the situation at least 12 months before the invasion. They were even then advising beefing up the Ukrainian military. Here is the link to Putin’s speech in July 2021
And here is one review of the speech , these reviews were given in July 2021 to the best of my knowledge.
At the very least these guys at the Atlantic Council got it completely right over 12 months ago.